I found the following article over on Webmonkey. They optimistically propose that Linux is on its way to becoming the desktop OS of choice, for the following 3 reasons. I really don’t buy it. Sorry, guys, but even though you have a compelling argument, I don’t think that 90% (or higher) of the computing public is ready for it. They completely ignore a wide variety of affecting factors. Things like – continual access to the Cloud, legacy compatibility, businesses’ reluctance to switch. It’s just not there yet.

And that’s ignoring the fact that Linux – even the much-heralded Ubuntu – is still a huge pain in the ass to work with if it doesn’t work like it should. You could say the same about Windows/Mac, but at least with those OSes, you don’t have to know how to sudo or have root access or open up a shell, etc etc. Until that entire realm within Linux is made dumb enough for Joe User, this happy Linux future is not ready for prime time.

1. The Economy. “The economic downturn is more than just marketing hype for open-source and Linux as a way to cut costs,” says Zemlin.

Right now, corporations large and small are actively consolidating IT infrastructures, Zemlin says, and free and open-source software is becoming increasingly attractive. Also, he says, a recession usually causes companies to re-think their age-old assumptions about their computing environments. They will be more likely to consider all the options when they think about software, server and workstation costs.

2. Redefinition of the Desktop. You’ve heard it so many times, it’s become a running joke: This is the year of the Linux desktop.

All kidding aside, Zemlin says, it may be time to ask, “Well, what is the desktop?”

Computing has flip-flopped in recent years — An Android phone or iPhone has roughly the same computing power as the ThinkPad notebook of five or six years ago, and today’s average netbook has several times more muscle than that old ThinkPad, yet it’s even cheaper than an iPhone.

“This is convergence — we’re seeing it really happen,” says Zemlin. In the process, the old rules about what defines a desktop are being re-written.

What is the new desktop? Is it the phone? The browser? The Kindle? The HDTV? The car? Whatever it is, Linux will play a critical role in defining the experience.

3. The Cloud. “Linux already has a vast lead in scaled virtual hosting and cost-per-CPU services,” says Zemlin. If you don’t see Linux’s advantage in web services, answer these questions: Could Google really be Google if it wasn’t for Linux? Could Google really be Google if it was running Windows?

via Three Reasons Linux Will Win in the Future – Webmonkey.